Monday Afternoon Update:
The enhanced risk (3/5) has been extended more southeastward, now including Greenbrier, Pocahontas, Highland, and Bath County.
The remainder of our counties remain in a slight risk (2/5) for tomorrow. That being said, it is still possible that the enhanced risk extends even more southward, but only time will tell.
The more north you go, the more likely you are to see impacts from this setup. The main threat is still strong winds, with the biggest impacts once again being in the Highlands.
As for hail, it is probable that those same areas see some. With the nature of this system, it is also a possibility that regions further south see at least pea-size hail in a few of the isolated cells.
Though the threat is small, it is certainly still there. Areas around Route 460 and northward are in a 2% risk of having a tornado form. Even though that may seem small, the risk is definitely there.
Timing is begining to look later in the day, which could mean great things. The later this system starts, the less likely severe impacts will generate.
As we look ahead into Wednesday, portions of Halifax and Pittsylvania counties are now in a slight risk (2/5). Most of the storms that are on the stronger side seem to pop up in the morning hours before retiring in the afternoon and earlty evening.
Sunday Evening:
As a cold front pushes toward the southeast on Tuesday, we are expected to see scattered storms in the early to mid-afternoon.
Some of these cells have the potential for damaging winds, hail, heavy rain, and even a slight potential of a tornado to be produced.
There are many threats that may be associated with this system, with the main threat being the potential for wind damage. Paired with the heavy rain, power outages are likely.
Though the threat for a tornado is not guaranteed, there is a non-zero chance.
The Storm Prediction Center has us under slight or a 2/5 risk for Tuesday due to these storms. With this being a 3-day outlook, this is subject to change, but unfortunately could up-the-odds as we get closer.
Since heavy rain and high rain-rates are expected, the Weather Prediction Center has the northern half of our region in a slight (2/4) risk and the southern half in a marginal (1/4) .
Many low-lying and urban areas are likely to be impacted by this, as well as roadways that reside close to rivers and creeks.
Remember: turn around, don’t drown!
As for timing, storms will start around noon and last off-and-on throughout the day. These storms will be most widespread around 4 pm and are also likely to be at their strongest around this time as well.
Our Severe Risk for Wednesday is still in the marginal and slight categories, but we are still seeing the potential for damaging wind gusts, small hail and heavy rainfall. We will need to stay weather aware both Tuesday and Wednesday.