ROANOKE, Va. – Hopefully, you enjoyed the cooler-than-average temperatures last week because we’re going to be returning to normal this week!
We’ll have highs Monday in the mid-80s throughout the region as our cold air wedge erodes. With the absence of the wedge, southerly flow will be allowed to move into our region, bringing in the heat and moisture.
The morning will be very overcast on Monday, before some gradual breakage in the clouds during the afternoon and evening. This will allow for a bit of sunshine to peek through and provide fuel for some thunderstorm development.
As we get into the rest of the week, temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 80s, which is pretty seasonable for this time of year. Rainfall will become increasingly more widespread until Wednesday, and then gradually dissipate as we get into the weekend. Be sure you have the umbrellas handy!
OK...let’s talk about the tropics as things are heating up both literally and figuratively. We now have three disturbances in the Atlantic, two of which pose no threat to land and will likely not develop in any kind of way as they head north.
The big one we’re watching is currently off the coast of Africa, and has a 90% chance of formation over the next 2-7 days. Personally, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if it forms by Monday afternoon, given how quickly it has tightened. Conditions are favorable for this storm to develop into a tropical storm, and likely a hurricane within the coming days. If/when it forms, it would be our fifth storm of the year and be named Erin. This also has the potential for our first Atlantic hurricane of 2025.
Sooooo where’s this thing going? That’s the million-dollar question, isn’t it? As of right now, it’s largely dependent on the strength of the Bermuda-Azores high-pressure system over the Atlantic. This is the main steering mechanism that will determine how westward this storm moves. If that area of higher pressure strengthens, we could see more of a direct impact on the United States. If it’s on the weaker side, this storm will likely turn north sooner, which would keep it off the East Coast. Regardless, we’ll more than likely see some increased wave heights along the beaches, and perhaps some stronger rip currents too. Keep in mind this is EXTREMELY early, with potential impacts not until NEXT weekend. The next name on our list for the year is Erin.