Monday Morning Update
This morning we are still dry and clear, but that all changes this afternoon. Strong to severe storms will move through the area in two waves, with the first wave starting around lunchtime.
Our SPC outlook puts the entirety of the viewing area under a slight risk today. The threats we are anticipating include hail, wind damage and heavy rainfall. This slight risk does extend from the entire state of Virginia into the Carolinas as well. The fuel from these storms is due to the combination of heat, humidity and a cold front.
Futurecast shows the first line of showers and storms around lunchtime hour, so you will want the umbrella for the lunch break and evening commute. This first line will be a bit more organized, with isolated cells developing in the second afternoon line around 1-2 PM.
Isolated instances of heavy rainfall will develop depending on the amount of clearing we have behind the first line of storms around lunchtime.
The first line of storms will be fueled with the convective development and the second line fueled with the cold front forcing. This is why we need to stay weather aware all day today!
In the wake of this front, we clear out for Tuesday and Wednesday before resuming another active pattern Thursday through Sunday.
Sunday Evening Update
With the heat and humidity abundant in our atmosphere, it was only a matter of time before we saw our next risk for severe weather.
A strong cold front will sweep through the region on Monday, bringing in the possibility of severe thunderstorms to hit the region. The Storm Prediction Center has put us under a slight risk for severe weather as well.
Winds will be the primary threat with this system, with a potential for damaging gusts throughout the afternoon. With a stark temperature contrast ahead of the front and behind the front, you’ll certainly feel the cooler air rush into the region, even if you aren’t experiencing a thunderstorm at that given moment.
We can’t rule out the risk of flooding in some areas either. While yes... we are still under drought conditions, any thunderstorm cell that pops up could produce significant rainfall rates that lead to the ground not absorbing moisture quickly enough, leading to flooding.
The hail threat is relatively low, as this setup just isn’t conducive to any significant hail. However, an isolated instance could appear in any supercells that develop.
The timing of this system appears to begin around noon and continue until around 8 p.m. The best chance for severe weather appears to be around 2-5 p.m., so certainly keep an eye on the sky and the radar if you happen to be outside tomorrow. However, I would forgo any outdoor plans or events, and be sure you have any outdoor furniture or items secured.
As always, we’ll continue to keep you informed.