ROANOKE, VA – Saturday Morning Update:
The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded portions of our region to an enhanced risk for a large chunk of our region, with others being in a slight risk all while still being 3 days out.
What this means is there is a strong likelihood of seeing severe conditions across the Commonwealth including damaging winds, hail, and the possibility of tornadoes.
As of now, this powerful cold front will push through the region in the late morning/early afternoon and produce loads of rain and strong winds. Later in the day, temperatures will drop substantially and begin to produce a rain/snow mix.
Timing for this is still a bit weary, but more models are starting to come into agreeance. As always, stay tuned with your Local Weather Authority for updates on this system, as more information is soon to come.
Friday Night:
With the warmer temperatures as of recent, it was only a matter of time before the thunderstorm risk arrived. Monday brings us the best chance of any severe weather so far.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued an uncommon Day 4 risk for severe weather for our area. With a strong cold front expected to pass, we very well could see severe weather. Damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes are all within the realm of possibilities.
The greatest chance of severe weather appears to be towards the Piedmont part of the state. Areas such as Appomattox, South Boston, and Danville run the greatest risk for severe thunderstorm development.
We don’t see Day 4 risks often, the last time our viewing area was under any kind of Day 4 risk was June 16 of last year, when nearly the entire commonwealth was under a 15% risk. For the last 30% Day 4 risk, you have to go all the way back to June 2, 2016.
The timing of the front will be the top story, as that has the greatest influence on the severe weather we see. Right now, the mid to late afternoon has the greatest chance for any severe weather.
As always, we’ll continue to keep you updated as this risk develops.